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On the AVes and AV-nots
06
09
On the AVes and AV-nots
Just a quickie really. There is a lot of confusion in the non-wonk world about "PR". Of course there are two meanings for the "P" in "PR": "Preferential", in which candidates can be ranked and which tend to ensure that the one least out of favour with the most electors actually gets elected, which in itself has some good points - very few UK MPs and English & Welsh Councillors can claim to have the confidence of at least half their electors and this would give them that; and "Proportional", in which the aggregate votes across a number of candidates tend to result in a number of people being elected fairly closely related to the overall share of the vote a party gets - they have such a system in Northwrn Ireland and in Scotland for local government and, even on relatively small constituencies of three or four members seems to have produced a fairly proportional result in council chambers.
The apparent proposal due from Gordon Brown is to use "Alternative Vote" which is one of the purely Preferential types of PR, with no pretense to Proportionality at all. It has the advantage mentioned above of ensuring that in single member constituencies someone has to get 50% support and so, I suppose, is slightly better that being fed to alligators in a Florida swamp, but not by much.
However, given that a general election is less than a year away, assuming no attempt is made to invoke some of the Civil Contingency powers to grant Gordon permanent rule without parliament (which cannot be ruled out of course!), it would be impossible to rearrange constituencies in my opinion to accommodation my preferred method of multi-member "Single Transferrable Vote" which is the Scottish local government system and certainly not, God help us, any list based system, or even "AV+" in which the constituency is decided by Alternative Vote then some top up regional members are allocated according to the overall share of the vote for each party in all the constituencies in that region.
So, I would support the Alternative Vote suggestion for ONE ELECTION ONLY and with an automatic clause that after that the relevant body (is it the Boundary Commission any more or has it been subsumed into the Electoral Commission?) immediately begins to reform constituencies in preparation for STV the next time round. The primary legislation preparing for this should be included in any imminent Bill proposing Alternative Vote so there can be no doubt that it will happen.
If that cannot be achieved, then I agree with those who say that AV is too small a step which, once taken, may set back the cause of true reform for another decade, and we should not in such a case support it at all. We must secure a firm commitment to proper reform. It is the proportionality of the UK parliament that is all wrong. AV can make a small difference in that, but it can also have the opposite effect.
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Comments
Slight correction - the Scottish and Welsh parliments are elected by the additional member system, with first past the post combined with regional top-up party lists.
Now amended - what an extraordinary system - FPTP +! Thanks for that Bernard.
Jock, so which system do you prefer?
I rather like the idea of multi-member constituencies (let's say three to five) with one-man-one-vote for one individual candidate.
The three (or five, or whatever) candidates with the biggest individual shares go through. If a party is confident it will get a huge share of the vote it is free to put up two or more candidates*, but most smaller parties would put up a single candidate and hope for the best. That keeps the ballot slip nice and short.
Then the candidates have to sort out between themselves who will represent which geographical sub-constituency, on the basis that the one with most personal votes has first dibs, so that there continues to be a direct one-to-one link from a voter to 'his' MP.
* Of course, if one party has two candidates, it will make it very interesting as to how they co-operate or compete - it may help the party to have them share the vote as equally as possible, but if they do that, they increase the chance that both fail as well as the chance that both succeed ...
MW, I'm ok with the constituency idea, but I'd prefer either STV or open lists to the SNTV system, because the incentive for tactical voting is so large, probably even more so than with FPTP. I've described it as the Goldilocks system in the past, because, unlike other systems where a candidate wants to get as many votes as possible, with SNTV, the candidate has to aim for a number which is "just right;" neither so low that they don't get elected, nor so high that they stop a running mate from being elected.
I can see the situation arising where a party deliberately runs bland candidates and sidelines potentially more appealing candidates so as to avoid splitting the vote unequally.
I know that the system has been used in Taiwan and it produced some ingenuious strategies, such as parties asking voters to vote for the candidate whose birthday was closest to theirs, or asking men to vote for one candidate and women for another. They're clever approaches, but I'm not sure they're indicative of a well functioning electoral system.
Paul Lockett's last blog post... Electoral Vagaries
I would go for STV and four, maybe five or six member constituencies.
I was quite skeptical about STV's ability to turn in a reasonably proportional result in smaller constituencies bu the Scottish local elections seem to have turned out not bad.
Preferential voting takes some of the power away from the parties - if there are five constituencies I would prefer to be able to choose from five candidates if a party had decided to fight them all.
Paul, Jock, I'm probably in agreement with you, but I've done a worked real life example on smaller MMC's and SNTV's but without party lists on my 'blog for you to consider (click my name for link).
I personally would prefer larger than smaller MMC's, and/or STV rather than SNTV, but let's make a modest start in the right direction, rather than AV which is probably a modest start in the wrong direction.
From my perspective, it all depends on what happens with the House of Lords. If we end up with a proportional upper house with sufficient power to put a block on legislation, then I'd be quite happy with AV for the lower house to avoid them mirroring each other.
Paul Lockett's last blog post... Electoral Vagaries
Paul, true.
But we need look no further than Germany for a good example of how an upper house might be constituted - each Land elects MPs by party list/PR to the Bundestag (Lower House) but each Land sends members to Bundesrat (Upper House) on basis of 'largest party takes all' (from memory).
That ain't perfect either, but it seldom happens that the same party has a majority in both.
Clarification: the system I'm talking about is used for the Dutch House of Representatives, although I'd have a directly elected Prime Minister, obviating the need for a "governing coalition". And possibly more seats.
Richard, I wouldn't mind having a single constituency, with the proviso that the election uses open rather than closed lists. The issue then becomes an issue of practicality; would the ballot paper become unmanageably large with a national costituency?
As per my previous comment, I think that the list system would be better suited to the Lords than the Commons. With a list system for the Lords and AV for the Commons, we'd expect to have a working majority in the Lower House, but no party having a majority in the Upper House. With the Parliament Act abolished, the Commons would control executive power and the Lords would control legislative power.
Paul Lockett's last blog post... Electoral Vagaries
Of course, I would like to see the current "crisis" as the beginning of the end for the whole shebang.
As a halfway house, I would abolish the second chamber and devolve all oversight/revision functions to more proporationately elected tier one local authorities, with a majority of those local authorities required to pass legislation proposed and drafted by the central parliament.
A specified number of those local authorities jointly promoting new legislation could automatically have it introduced into the parliamentary process.
I don't like party lists, and certainly not closed lists. I think there probably is still a reasonable case for some kind of a "constituency", but I don't see any reason why those constituencies shouldn't be, say, coterminus with the tier one local authorities, each with a number of MPs proportionate to their population or something and to have STV for their elections.
All pie in the sky probably, but these are extraordinary times.