Over at the Bad Conscience blog, Paul Sagar has an interesting essay asking libertarians to agree with him that the recent banking bailouts were, in fact, necessary (to preserve society as we know it) and that we should also agree that there ought to be "better and greater" regulation of the financial world from now on. Now, I don't appear to fall into any of the categories of people he's "tagged" as especially wanting to hear from, what he calls "sensible (and later "intelligent") libertarians, liberals and leftists of all stripes" (though I suppose as a Mutualist/Individualist Anarchist I could well fall into the last grouping). I rather suspect, however, from what I am going to write here, he might consign me to his fourth, rather unflattering and condescending category of "unthinking libertarians" (anyone who does not agree with his argument, it would seem).
You see I fear Paul is falling into a very common trap of using a narrow definition of "libertarian" with just one, "minarchist" or "classical liberal", strain in mind. And also assuming that they are somehow "of the right". He makes frequent reference to that father of the Labour Theory of Value, Adam Smith, as a "libertarian" and that because Smith judged something (emergency intervention that overrode private property rights in this case) acceptable, then so should all "sensible libertarians."
But there is a great big elephant in the room here being thoroughly ignored, indeed so old and hoary is this elephant that some may even think it a museum stuffed woolly mammoth instead. And that is that there is a great proportion of the "libertarian family tree", as I have taken to describing it, who would utterly reject the banking system as it is currently constituted and who would argue that if people had listened to us over the past getting on for two centuries now there would be little scope for these crises to arise in the first place.
Not only that, but the little menagerie crowding around Paul's argument includes another, perhaps not quite so lumbering beastie, let's call it the hippopotamus in the room: his criticism of the state's complicity in creating the circumstances in which the crisis could breed is restricted to whether or not their regulation was strong enough, or competent enough. There is of course a much more direct way in which governments contributed to this crisis, through their monetary policy precipitating the classic asset bubble. Even in the comments, though Tim Worstall mentions the asset bubble, he does not venture to place the blame for that at anyone's feet.
And if we are first going to sort out the current mess and second try to ensure that it cannot happen again, both of these issues that overshadow Paul's arguments need to be dealt with properly. Why should be trust the state to provide industry regulation on the one hand, when it wishes also to tinker with the underlying economics through monetary, political and fiscal policy with the other? And why do we believe that any amount of regulation of a system so fundamentally flawed as the fractional reserve fiat central bank money system will ever be able to prevent such a thing happening again.
It's also worth mentioning perhaps, lest someone pops up and dismisses these arguments about the money system as some "Austrian School nutter's ravings" that there have long been many statist political economists have recognised and called for the fractional reserve debt-money system to be replaced (and I was one of them - I was calling this recession to my friends in about 2003/4 on grounds that, as a budding housing developer, I thought were blindingly obvious, and which turn out with hindsight to have been simply a not terribly well articulated or understood perhaps exposition of the Austrian Business Cycle theory. I believe Chris Huhne even may still have a copy of a book I managed to thrust into his hands when I first met him in Oxford for an elections photo-op in 2001 or 2002 that explained it all.
Further, Paul seems to be saying that the sort of "deregulation" seen in the financial services sector in the eighties and nineties created some kind of a "free market" that has been proven to be a busted flush. However much or little regulation may be imposed from time to time, because of the very basic workings of the corrupt and fraudulent money system we currently have, and have had in effect for most of the twentieth century, there can be no sector looks less like a "free market" as radical libertarians would understand it than the banking sector.
It is, in fact, in each nation at least that operates a currency of its own or shares responsibility for a joint one like the Euro, effectively a monopoly. A monopoly of state authorised and state manipulated money supply which is delivered to us plebs through a carefully selected and nurtured group of highly privileged "sub-contractors" - the private (and now not to private) commercial banks. You only have to understand that the establishment of the Federal Reserve System in the US was the "price" Woodrow Wilson had to pay for the financial campaign support of the country's two wealthiest men (then, or ever, in real terms equivalence - something like four times Bill Gates' fortune!) - John D Rockerfeller and James Pierpoint Morgan - to make you wonder whether that system was never intended to be of great benefit to the people at large, or deliberately designed to yield the greatest benefit to the wealthy banking oligarchy.
This arrangement also enables the government of such a currency owning territory to inflate its money supply at will. Not often as obviously as the recent "quantitative easing" policy of course, but over the last decade the broadest measure of money supply, M4 Lending, which is all the lending into existence of new deposits arising from loans, mortgages etc., has been growing in double figures per year. Over the ninety or so years since the founding of the Federal Reserve system in the US the dollar has been devalued by 98% and a similar figure obtains for Britain too over a similar period.
This amounts to an additional tax on anyone who possesses stores of money (savings), and, whilst it is commonplace to hear the supposed comfort that "it makes people's borrowings cheaper to finance" (the biggest debtor inevitably being...the government of course!) this hides the fact that for the ordinary folk who have such debts that may be marginally benefitted from inflation it will be accompanied with price rises. Inflation is often a way in which governments pay for something they think it will be difficult to persuade voters of the need for higher taxes to do. It is frequently used to diminish the cost of the debt arising from wars for example.
And price inflation does not simply appear evenly right across the economy all at once - the people who have created the new purchasing power and spend it first (the government and the bankers) take prices by surprise and get their goods, with essentially counterfeit new money, at the old lower prices, whereas when it filters through to the ordinary man or woman on the street in their pay rise or whatever prices will likely already have adjusted, so for them, the inflation has been of no benefit at all.
Now, quite apart from the fact that the way our money is created is an outright fraud, one that empowers politicians and their banker sub-contractor cronies above everyone else, the further truth that these bankers are conducting their business denominated in a unit that we the citizens believe and expect to be somehow "guaranteed by the nation" will always create so-called "moral hazard". Forget all this talk of allowing banks to fail - it is the credibility of the state's currency that is at risk, so it is highly likely that they will try to protect it by massive intervention to prevent a collapse. This, if you like, is where regulation most likely is needed - state treasuries need to have some feeling of control over "their" money - and so this is where things like reserve limits, monitoring quality of loans, even setting limits, perhaps, on the "velocity" of their money in the markets by limiting the vast sums involved in things like Foreign Exchange trading (in which in London dealers alone nearly as much is traded daily as would account for our entire annual GDP) come in, and insisting on the transparency of innovative trading instruments, so that monetary and wholesale market authorities have an idea of the potential calls on "their" (i.e. "our") currency that may arise.
If these banks were dealing in currencies for which they were the responsible issuer and guarantor of its stability and long term value, the buck would, literally, have to stop at the Chief Executive's desk. Some banks might guarantee their currency by assuring its conversion on demand into precious metals, say, others might already have established strong credibility for the quality of their loan book against which they back their currency, others still might rely on a mutuial or co-operative business model whose members trust the bank they own between them. Couple that with an active private deposit insurance market evaluating the creditworthiness of each issuing bank, and you have a market only solution, with no need for external regulation, and with no single point of failure that would threaten whole nations' economies.
But even if one were to agree that some kind of external regulation was necessary, how could one possibly believe a state agency is the right choice for the job? The history of this recession will reveal why...
A recession, crunch, whatever you want to call it is not a random event occurring out of the blue. It is in fact the end of a business cycle that starts with a boom. For all Gordon Brown's bluster about having "abolished boom and bust" he must have known he was lying through his teeth, In a boom, which is caused usually by excessively easy access to money, borrowed money mostly since that's how most money actually comes into existence anyway, and so somewhat less circumspection as to what that money is being invested in, produces many bad investments amongst the no doubt many good ones. At some point the credibility, if you like, of the bad investment choices in the eyes of the consumer, disappears, and those businesses go to the wall or people start selling off that type of asset. The downturn is a perfectly natural and necessary part of a boom - since it clears out these bad investments and allows the money previously tied up in them to be invested in new, hopefully better opportunities. So what causes the boom?
Well, in our case, none other than Gordon Brown did. In 1997 Labour's first election victory for 18 years had been largely made possible by them managing to persuade the City of London that they could now be trusted with the economy. Imagine then the prospect of coming up to your first attempt at re-election as the previous asset bubble, the "dot com boom", was bursting. There was a very real prospect, dragged down by the USA, the epicentre of the "dot com" phenomenon, that Britain could go into a recession just in time for the election. So the monetary authorities on both sides of the Atlantic deliberately kept their interest rates artificially low. This has always been a signal to the banking "sub-contractors" that they should be lending more to get more money into the economy to try to ensure demand kept growth positive. However savings were already at an historically low level and borrowing at an historically high level. Most people who would have been "good risk" borrowers were already mortgaged. So the bankers had to find a new market for their new counterfeit debt money, and that meant finding new ways of managing the higher risk. And so they started to make heavy use of the various now infamous packaging mechanisms and derivatives to spread the risk. And the rest, as they say, is history.
With China pumping out consumer goods on demand, there was no upward pressure on retail prices from this extra credit swilling around, so where did it go to? Into speculative bidding up of land values in house prices. A boom that was sustained continuously for seven years or so. In the process pricing many ordinary working households out of the housing market.
So this crisis was caused, as others have been before it, by a government wanting to save its electoral skin, causing an artificial monetary inflation raising the one asset price that could not be produced in unlimited quantities, leaving many families struggling to afford accommodation and that was as sure as night follows day to lead to an almighty correction sooner or later. But you don't have to take my word for it - Eddie George explained the whole process its origins in political pressure and its implications to the Treasury Select Committee in February 2007, who promptly either ignored or forgot about it.
And you, Paul, want these people to be responsible for regulating the very industry they so calculatingly manipulate year in year out for their mutually beneficial ends?
And finally, on the rights or wrongs of the bail-outs and financial support for bad and doubtful debts being handed out by the state to the great cost of future taxpayers. The big mistake was not allowing the recession to happen in 2000-2002. Stifling it by encouraging demand through lower interested rates meant that the "clear out" of the bad investments made in the preceding boom did not occur properly. So when we got to this time round there were already two booms' worth of those bad investments to be cleared out this time.
So what have we done this time? Yes, we have propped up hundreds of billions of pounds' worth of new bad investments - like people paying more than they can reasonably sustain for their houses - from the most recent boom. If these are not cleared out, their effects will still likely be felt at the end of the next cycle, because until we get sound inflation proof, political interference free money we will have other cycles, and next time it could be even worse still. And you have to add to that the fact that they have created so much new money in the process that that could easily kick start a new boom faster than would be desirable.
There were more sophisticated mechanisms available for "rescuing" banks without pumping in so much, if any, public money - like mandating private debt-for equity swaps...after all, shareholders of the banks had also made a very large "bad investment" in the very institutions that were financing everyone else's bad investments and these needed to be cleared out too. Heck, even I had a clever scheme that I calculated could have taken all the doubtful mortgages then being underwritten by the taxpayer and converting them to capital partnerships in which the banks as mortgagors would receive new, performing, index linked paper whilst the mortgagees would be able to lower their costs for a period.
So, Paul, whether you now want to describe me as an "unthinking libertarian", an "intelligent libertarian" or merely a "mad mutualist", this "libertarian" does not accept your two proposals, and goes further - that if we do not take this once in a century opportunity to reform the money and banking system entirely, rather than tinker around with some new regulation here and there but essentially operating the same corrupt fraud, we will be doomed to repeat this again and again. And the likelihood is that, as a result of our unwillingness to allow the malinvestments of the last two booms to be cleared out properly each time that they will come more quickly in future and be even more severe. And in the process we can at last create a proper free market in banking in which the participants' own self-interests will play the regulator since they will have no-one standing by to protect their national currency's reputation, rather than whatever it is commentators have called a "free market" up till now.
But neither the banking oligarchy nor the politicians whose power is immensely increased by their ability to tinker with the money system want us to know this, and certainly don't want to do anything to change it.
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