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General Election: March 26th or June 4th?

27
02
09

General Election: March 26th or June 4th?

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Drowning Brown: How much longer is he going to wriggle?

I've long been of the opinion that Gordon Brown, for all sorts of reasons, would wait until the last possible moment in 2010 to go to the country.

I've now changed my mind. I don't think he can last another couple of months. I do not see how Darling can get a budget through that is not either going to have to be full of more lies to cover up the seriousness of the position or be honest and open and expose the farce that the various rescue attempts have been and the true cost of them.

We already have the police worried about a "summer of rage", and one way, perhaps, to prevent that rage boiling over may be to give the middle class a say in how this economic drama plays out and who they  want the main actors to be from here on in.

My only real quandary is over whether Gordon Brown's government can now last as long as the European Parliament elections on 4th June. Though since there's no way of having another G20 summit hamstrung by a reasonably major player in the middle of a power transfer I don't suppose he can go to the country before April 2nd, unless of course his hand is forced this weekend.

So, a snap election with a three week campaign starting more or less now, polling day of March 26th, or dissolution after April 2nd but before the budget on 22nd April with polling day on Euro-day. 

Personally, I don't think Brown is capable of being honest enough to see that it would be better to have a new government in place for both G20 and the Budget, so my guess is that he'll go either between the two and shelve the budget but have his moment strutting about at the global blathering, or perhaps after the budget in a sort of "dare you do better" sort of move.  I also think there's a good chance he'll get lynched by someone before 22nd April!

Just a note for those of an historical bent - 22nd April 2009 will be exactly one week before the centenary of Lloyd-George's People's Budget in 1909. Whoever delivers this year's budget could still do a lot worse than look to that 1909 budget for ideas!

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